Friday, November 7, 2014

Week 11 Power Rankings

Tier 1

1. Ohio State
The Buckeyes received quite a scare during their visit to Happy Valley, being pushed to overtime against a bad Penn State team, but they came out on top. They are a young team and that was their first true road game, so that should help them moving forward.

JT Barrett has played like the best QB in the conference this year and the young offensive line has gotten on a roll. Dominant defensive end Joey Bosa leads the defense, as the secondary continues to improve. Illinois gave them no issue last week, and they head to East Lansing this week for the Big 10 showdown of the year.

2. Michigan State
Even after losing a few starters in the secondary, including first round draft pick Darqueze Dennard, the "no fly zone" passing defense has returned to being one of the nations elites after a rough early season outing against Oregon.

Conner Cook has started playing well again after a some what rocky stretch and Tony Lippett has been the best reciver in the conference so far this year. Jeremy Langford has also gotten going, giving Sparty a balanced attack. They welcome Ohio State tomorrow,

Tier 2

3.Nebraska
Ameer Abdullah went down with a knee injury in last week's win over Purdue, but he is not expected to miss much time with it. Even with out him, the Huskers should be able to run the ball behind a powerful offensive line, they will just need QB Tommy Armstrong to limit his mistakes in the passing game.

The defense is not very stout against the run, but they have the lowest passer rating against in the conference and Randy Gregory is pass rushing like a future top 10 pick.

4. Wisconsin
So yea, they bullied Rutgers up front last week on both sides of the football. Melvin Gordon and Corey Clement both went well over 100 yards, despite their non existent passing game. Remember when I said their defense isn't as a good as the numbers indicate? That comment looks extremely laughable now.

Tier 3

5. Minnesota
The Gophers are very well coached on defense and David Cobb is a great running back, but your not going to win your division dropping games to Illinois.

6. Maryland
Their horrible run defense was a non issue last week against Penn State's horrible run offense, but it could bite them at some point down the road. The explosive offense will be with out top play maker Stefon Diggs after this week's bye, since he was suspended for showing the Nittany Lions the disrespect they deserve.

7. Iowa
The run game has gone hot and cold this year, but they are still putting up some points thanks to their surprisingly effective passing attack. Still need to tighten things up on defense. They isit Minnesota this week in a big western division show down.

Tier 4

8. Rutgers
They were embarrassed three weeks in a row by the leagues best teams, but they check in at 8 because this conference as a whole is so bad.

9. Michigan
Devin Gardner has played well since coming back from his inexplicable benching. The front seven is still strong and the secondary remains an issue.

10. Northwestern
Strong defense, bad offense in pretty much every game. They've played themselves out of division title contention in a hurry.

11. Penn State
Horrible offensive line and running game have prevented Hackenberg from being better. Still think they have the best defense in the conference, and that will keep them in every game.

Tier 5

12. Purdue
The offense has been running the ball very effectively since Austin Applebee was inserted at QB. Surprisingly competitive team, Darrell Hazell probably should be coach of the year no matter what, but he won't be if they miss a bowl.

Tier 6

13. Illinois
They shockingly beat Minnesota and that will probably be the high point of the season. Doubt Tim Beckham can save his job at this point.

14. Indiana
Such a shame Tevin Coleman plays on such a horrible team.

B1G Predictions:

Penn State 20 Indiana 17
The Nittany Lions tough run defense should contain, but not stop Coleman. Hackenberg will probably make a couple plays against a bad defense to win.

Iowa 20 Minnesota 21
The Gophers will squeak out a win at home thanks to Cobb and the ball control offense. I would expect The Hawkeyes rushing attack to run cold against a good defense,

Wisconsin 42 Purdue 17
The Badgers will run all over the Boilermakers.

Michigan 13 Northwestern 16
This is gong to be a drag it out defensive battle. I'll pick the Cats in a low scoring game since they are at home.

Ohio State 27 Michigan State 24
I expect the Buckeyes to be extremely fired up for this revenge game after the Spartans cost them a shot at the national championship a year ago. I expect the Spartans defense to stop Barrett through the air, but to struggle stopping the run. Michigan State should be able to run the ball well, but I think Bosa coming off the edge will be a big factor. The Buckeyes special teams will give them an edge and field pisition and likely decide the game.

Other Picks:
Baylor 24 Oklahoma 30

Notre Dame 20 Arizona State 24

Alabama 17 LSU 14

Kansas State 27 TCU 31

Oregon 43 Utah 31

Saturday, November 1, 2014

Game 9: Wisconsin

Wisconsin visits Piscataway this week for a rainy homecoming as the Scarlet Knights look to end their losing streak. With how Rutgers homecoming games usually go and how bad the Knight shave been at stopping the run, I expect this to once again be a loppsided loss for Rutgers.

Rutgers on offense: I'm typing this at 11:50 and still don't know if Gary Nova will play. Regarldess of whether he or Chis Laviano is under center today, I would expect the Knights to try to keep the offense balanced today. I don't think Wisconsin's defense is as good as the numbers indicate, so I expect them to score some points. RobMartin's role will probably continue to grow today, and look for them to get Janarion Grant and Desmon Peoples in space. Wisconsin's defense is slow and Coach Friedgen will look to use Rutgers speed as an advantage. Leonte Carroo went down and grabbed his knee during pregame warmups, so we will have to watch his status today as he looks to go over 100 yards for the 3rd game in a row.

Rutgers on defense: Well, the only question today is how far over 200 yards Melvin Gordon will go. The Badgers offensive line is one of the best in the country and Rutgers' defensive line and run defense in general have been completely overwhelmed in recent weeks, so it's going to be ugly. Joel Stave is in at QB, and he has the yips this year and lacks a diffenerence maker to throw to. Joe Rossi should load the box with 8 or 9 every play to try to stop the run. The corners should be able to win 1 on 1 outside.

Rutgers 30 Wisconsin 42

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Week 9 Power Rankings and Picks

Doing it with tiers this week

Tier 1
1. Ohio State
LW: 56-17 win over Rutgers
TW: at Penn State
Prediction: Ohio State 38 Penn State 14

The Buckeyes are just steam rolling everything in their path. They are head and shoulder talent wise ahead of everyone else in the conference and they have the best coaching staff too. Don't think anyone here is going to argue with this after last week. I would be surprised if anyone besides Michigan State is competitive with them this year.

Tier 2
2. Michigan State
LW: 56-17 win over Indiana
TW: Michigan
Prediction: Michigan State 34 Michigan 10

Their defense is not as strong as it was a year agao, and Conner Cook has been scuffling a bit lately, but Kendall Langford and their offensive line have established a strong ground game in recent weeks.

3.Nebraska
LW: 38-17 win at Northwestern
 TW: Rutgers
Prediction: Coming Soon

AmeerAbdullah might be the best tailback in the country with Gurley suspended and Tommy Armstrong is improving as a passer. Randy Gregory is playing like a top 5 pick at defensive end, but this still isn't your typical Black Shirt Defense,

Tier 3:
4. Minnesota
LW:39-38 win over Purdue
TW: at Illinois
Prediction: Minnesota 30 Illinois 17

The Gophers normally solid defense faltered big time against Purdue lat week, but the David Cobb led offense managed to win a shoot out.

5. Rutgers
LW: 56-17 loss at Ohio State
TW: at Nebraska
Prediction: Coming Soon

They were destroyed in Columbus last week, but I think most teams in this conference would have been too, The run defense has surprisingly been a big issue, but their offense has continued to be solid,

6. Maryland
LW: 38-31 win over Iowa
TW: at Wisconsin
Prediction: Maryland 24 Wisconsin 31

Maryland has an explosive, albeit inconsistent offense led by the dynamic Stefon Diggs, but their run defense has been a major issue and that will be a problem as they visit the Badgers this week.

7. Northwestern
LW: 38-17 loss to Nebraska
TW: Bye

Still looking for something on offense. Defense still looks strong, despite getting a bit pushed around by the Huskers.

8, Wisconsin
LW: Bye
TW: Maryland
Prediction: Wisconsin 31 Maryland 24

Great offensive line, great back in Melvin Gordon, but this team can not throw the ball and their young , banged up defense has not lived up to the expectations their defense has set in recent years,

9. Iowa
LW: 38-31 loss at Maryland
TW: Bye

Te offense has some what surprisngly been very good this year.Their defense, not so much,

Tier 4:
10. Michigan
LW: Bye
TW: at Michigan State
Prediction: Michigan 10 Michigan State 34

This team still has an outside chance at making a bowl game. They had a nightmare road trip to East Lansing last year (I think they ran for negative yards) so I would expect more of the dame in this one. If they keep Cook in check it could be close.

11. Purdue
LW: 39-38 loss at Minnesota
TW: Bye

They are a competitive football team and they are getting better every week. Their rushing attack has been borderline dominant?

12. Penn State
LW: Bye
TW: Ohio State
Prediction: Penn State 14 Ohio State 38

Their offensive line simply prevents them from being able to do anything on offense. DOesn't even matter how th hot shot QB plays, Their defense might be the best in the conference though, and that should keeo them in games, including this one against the Bucks.

Tier 5:
13. Indiana
LW: 56-17 loss to Michigan State
TW: Bye

Tevin Coleman is an outstanding back, it;s a shame his efforts are going mostly to waste.

14. Illinois
LW: Bye
TW: Minnesota
Prediction: Illinois 17 Minnesota 30

They play Ohio State next week. Hide the woman and children.

Elswhere

Ole Miss 13 LSU 9
Tough to pick against LSU at home for a night game, but early departures to the NFL have really hurt them, Ole Miss has the best defensive line in the country. I would expect a low scoring game, the Tigers are going to need to force Wallace to turn the ball over multiple times,

USC 24 Utah 21
USC's rushing attack against the Utes quick front line should be a fun matchup to watch, If the Trojns run defense shows up I think they win,

Washington 34 Arizona State 30
I like the Huskies pulling off the upset at home.

Arizona 41 Washington State 35
Would be cool if Washington State started winning,

Clemson 40 Syracuse 0
Clemson is playing their back up QB but this will be a laugher,

West Virginia 34 Oklahoma State 20
The Cowboys offense has really been scuffling this year, That defense is solid though.



Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Rutgers Annihilated by Ohio State 56-17

We saw first hand just how far away Rutgers is from competing for a Big 10 championship on Saturday, as they were totally outclassed by Ohio State by the score of 56-17 in front of 106,795 fans, which was the most Rutgers has ever played in front of. The Buckeyes were just the bigger, faster, more physical and more talented, better coached team and it showed in a huge way. This was Rutgers largest margin of defeat in 12 years. This was a total embarrassment of a game that just needs to be forgotten as the team moves forward. Almost nothing good happened in this game. I hate looking back on blow outs,so at least I will save some time writing this recap.

The defense was an unmitiglated disaster in this game, there's no way around that. Ohio State scored a touchdown on seven of their ten non end of half drives, which is totally unacceptable,The line was getting blown off the ball on almost every play and the tackling at the second and third level was atrocious, which has been a season long theme but was especially bad in this game. Making matters worse was the fact that Ohio State was snapping the ball before Rutgers had their play call in and/or not yet set up. That's 100% in the coaching staff, They should be prepared for that kind of stuff.

JT Barrett escaped pressure numerous times and ran free for a whole bunch of yards and touchdowns. It looked like Rutgers was playing man coverage and there was just nobody there to stop him. I'm not a big fan of spying quarterbacks, but they probably should have spied him. This was obviously an extreme circumstance, they won't play another offense even close to the Buckeyes level this year, but I am growing very concerned with this unit.

The offense was.....not horrible. The offensive line struggled in pass protection, but I thought they were pretty good run blocking. The Knights ran 34 times for 180 yards (5.3 per carry) when you don't include sack yardage, which is very nice. They struggled on the ground in their first two Big 10 games, but this was a strong performance. Keith Lumpkin in particular deserves a ton of credit, a lot of Rutgers big runs came behind him off left tackle and he was mauling people. Especially since the Buckeyes put star defensive end Joey Bosa on the offense's right for most of the game. Both Desmon Peoples (qho scored his the first two touchdowns of his career in this game)and Justin Goodwin ran the ball very well in this one, and Rob Martin showed some flashes of potential late in the game. Good to at least see the run game get going. Most of the game was garbage time, but Ohio State kept their starters in until late in the 4th quarter,

Gary Nova was under pressure pretty much every time he dropped back, but he only turned the ball over once and averaged seven yards per attempt. That's ok-ish. He made a nice escape to complete a 40 yard deep ball to Leonte Carroo, and Carroo also made a circus catch leaping and ripping the ball away from a defender as part of a 100 yard receiving day. The Iron Men duo almost connected for a touchdown in the redzone before half time, but Nova left the pass a little short and it was intercepted. They probably should have ended up with about 24-28 points in this game, which is on line with what they have been doing. You should still feel good about this group.

This game was very ugly for the defense, and they need to just put it on their rear view mirror as they prepare for a tough Nebraska team. The offense at least showed some positives they can build on moving forward. This game was embarrassing and showed that Rutgers is nowhere close to being on Ohio State's level in any stretch of the imagination, The Big 10 as a whole is very watered down, but the Buckeyes are still an elite program who could very well be in the playoff this January.




Saturday, October 18, 2014

Game 7: Ohio State


Rutgers heads out west to Columbus to take on Ohio State in their first conference road game as a member of the Big 10. The 105,00 people expected to attend today's game will be the biggest crowd Rutgers has ever played in front of. Noise obviously will be a factor for the offense's communication today. Ohio State has a very young team that got off to a slow start this season, and they are missing star quarterback Braxton Miller, but Urban Meyer's crew has been improving every week and they are starting to play like the best team in the Big 10 and a playoff contender like they were expected to be. This is going to be the most difficult game for Rutgers to win in quite a long time.

Rutgers on Offense
I don't think Rutgers is going to be able to run the ball today. Betim Bujari will play after looking questionable all week, but the line as a whole has not been playing well in Big 10 play and neither Desmon Peoples or Justin Goodwin have been able to get going since Paul James went down.

Once again, Gary Nova is going to have to step up and win this game. He did it last time out against Michigan, and Ohio State does have a secondary that can be beat. He is going to need time to throw though, and Ohio State defensie end Joey Bosa is one of the best pass rushers in the Big 10. Seems like they are going to have to attack with the short passing game today, I'd expect Tyler Kroft and John Tsimis to be heaily inolved. Hopefully Andrew Turzilli's performance against Michigan will lead to Leonte Carroo getting double teamed less and he can win some one on one match ups over the middle and also deep.

Rutgers on Defense
Virginia Tech shut down Ohio State's offense by playing a bunch of Bear fronts and cover 0. I remember Hokie defensie coordinator Bud Foster saying they were treating Ohio State like a triple option team and were daring JT Barrett to beat them. They also blitzed the crap out of him and forced a bunch of turnovers.

Barrett has taken huge leaps forward since that game, so that game plan probably won't work today. Still, I would expect Rutgers to stay in their 4-3 under fronts with a safety down in the box to stop the run. Despite Barrett being in the top 5 nationally in pass efficiency, they should sellout to stop the run (not as much as VT, keep a safety over the top) and dare him to beat them. Blitz the crap out of him and force mistakes too.

Rutgers 24 Ohio State 38

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Week 8 B1G Power Rankings and Picks

1. Ohio State
Last Week: Bye
This Week: Rutgers
Prediction: Coming Soon

Their offense has really been rolling since that weird loss to Virginia Tech. The young offensive line has played really well and JT Barrett has basically replicated Braxton Miller. Joey Bosa leads the stout front seven, but the secondary is a bit of a weakness. Urban Meyer has done a good job with this young team.


2. Michigan State
Last Week: 45-31 win at Purdue
This Week: at Indiana
Prediction: MSU 48 IND 16

Purdue had the ball with a minute left down seven, so this game was closer than the final score indicates. Their offense has played really well, but the defense has not lived up to its' very lofty expectations. Indiana will not give them any problems, however.

3. Nebraska
Last Week: Bye
This Week: at Northwestern
Prediction: NEB 27 NW 20

I would expect their defense to play better in the second half of the year, Pelini is a very good defensive coach. Ameer Abdullah is probably the cream of the crop at the running back position in the Big 10, despite the low yardage total in East Lansing.

4. Rutgers
Last Week: Bye
This Week: at Ohio State
Prediction: Coming Soon

The advanced stats have Rutgers ranked 24th nationally. That is kind of surprising, especially since these stats usually have the Knights lower than they should be (at least in my opinion). But Rutgers is rated as a top 36 team in all three phases of the game, so that's at least believable.

5. Minnesota
Last Week: 24-17 win over Northwestern
This Week: Purdue
Prediction: MIN 24 PUR 14

A big kick return for a touchdown and a solid defense and running game won the Gophers a big Big 10 West showdown last week.

6. Iowa
Last Week: 45-29 win over Indiana
This week: at Maryland
Prediction: Iowa 31 Maryland 27

Their offense exploded against Indian's struggling defense. They are very much in the thick of things in the wide open west, and they do have Nebraska at home the day after Thanksgiving.

7. Northwestern
Last Week: 24-17 loss at Minnesota
This Week: Nebraska
Prediction: NW 20 NEB 27

Their defense has played really well the last few weeks, but they need more out of their offense. Veneric Mack's late decision to transfer has really hurt them.

8. Wisconsin
Last Week: 38-28 win over Illinois
This Week: Bye

Joel Stave replaced Tanner McEvoy at QB, but the Badgers still lack difference makers at wide out and still can not moe the ball through the air. Their offensive line is still dominant and Melvin Gordon seemingly runs for 200 yards every week, so they are far totally helpless on O.

9. Michigan
Last Week: 18-13 win over Penn State
This Week: Bye

The Wolverines keep continuing to fight despite a lot of distractions. Their front seven should keep them in a lot of games, and I think offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier has done a good job despite injuries, the young/bad line and Gardner being streaky.

10. Maryland
Last week: Bye
This Week: Iowa
Prediction: Maryland 27 Iowa 31

Their defense has been lit up by teams that have actual offenses (ie. not Syracuse and USF) and I'm not buying their own offense for some reason. This is not a bad team and they should go bowling, I'm just not nearly as high on them as others seem to be.

11. Penn State
Last Week: 18-13 loss at Michigan
This Week: Bye

Hackenberg threw his first touchdown pass since September 6, but he has still throwin more interceptions than touchdowns. Not all his fault, obviously. They have a great defense but it isn't enough to overcome the seemingly helpless offense.

12. Purdue
Last Week: 45-31 loss at Purdue
This Week: at Minnesota
Prediction: PUR 14 MIN 24

Darrell Hazell's team has been surprisingly competitive against some really good teams. They are not a very good, but the program is definitely going in the right direction.

13. Indiana
Last Week: 45-29 loss at Iowa
This Week: Michigan State
Prediction: IND 16 MSU 48

The defense was again lit up and they lost QB Nate Sudfeld for the year. A promising start to the season has turned south in a hurry.

14. Illinois
Last Week: 38-28 loss at Wisconsin
This Week: Bye

They at least scored some points with out Lunt, but their defense isn't stopping anybody.

Other Picks
Oklahoma 27 Kansas State 21

Bob Stoops rarely loses at home and Trevor Knight will probably get back on track after a couple rough games (please call Katy Perry, dude).

Florida State 37 Notre Dame 34

I actually think Notre Dame is pretty legit this year, but I can't imagine their defense slowing down the Noles at the Doak after getting picked apart by North Carolina,

Alabama 41 Texas A&M 24

The Tide have played two sub par games in a row and I think they are going to run all over the Aggies. Kenny Hill won't provide the Manziel magic* in this one.

*Manziel magic is another way of saying Luke Joeckl, Mike Evans, Ryan Swopes, Christine Michael and Jake Matthews.

Arkansas 24 Georgia 20

Didn't happen this week against Mizzou, but Georgia's offense will miss Todd Gurley. The Razorbacks (maybe the worst team in the SEC west) will run the ball effectively to beat the best team in the SEC East.

Oregon 34 Washington 30

The Huskies have not defeated the Ducks in 10 years, and I don't think they can pull of the upset. The opportunistic defense led by Shaq Thompoon will keep it interesting.

TCU 41 Oklahoma State 34

That TCU Baylor games was something else last week. The Horned Frogs could easily have a let down after that gut wrenching loss, but Gary Patterson will keep it together.

Arizona State 28 Stanford 21 (seven field goals)

I wonder if Todd Graham has any family in Ann Arbor or Gainsville.




Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Rutgers Midseason Review

Rutgers' first bye week of the season comes exactly at the half way point, so this seems like as good of a time as any to take stock in what has happened in the Scarlet Knights' first six games.

Surprise!
Before the season, I thought Rutgers would go 4-8. I felt that the talent was there to compete in the watered down Big 10, but I had very little confidence in Kyle Flood getting the job done after not only losing but getting blown out my a number of inferior teams in the AAC last year. A bowl berth would have been considered a major success coming into the 2014 season. Through six games they have already surpassed my projected win total and one win away from bowl eligibility. I'm happy to be wrong.

Rutgers was able to win a shoot out over Washington State in a game many thought would see their much maligned secondary exposed by the pass happy Cougs. They gave up a whole lot of yards, but clamped down in the redzone and let the offense do their thing. They were also able to win what I thought would be an extremely tough game at Navy.

But funny enough, the one game they actually lost, their Big 10 debut at home against Penn State, was one of the four games I had marked down as a win.


We Still Don't Know What to Expect From Gary Nova
We all knew that Gary Nova was going to be Rutgers quarterback all season, come hell or high water, but we had no idea what to expect out of him performance wise. His play in the first half of the year did not provide much clarity.

Nova is 5th nationally in passing efficiency, and he did throw for a career high 404 yards against a solid Michigan defense, but that five interception game against Penn State still happened. Hopefully that was just a blip on the radar and he continues playing like he has in the other five games the rest of the way.

Just How Good is the Offensive Line?
Rutgers offensive line was able to dominate against non power five opponents like Howard, Tulane and Navy, as well as a Washington State defense made soft by the air raid offense they had to practice against through out training camp, but they struggled mightily in their first two Big 10 games. They averaged 4.4 yards a carry and only allowed three sacks in their four out of conference games, but they are averaging just 2.89 yards a carry with five sacks allowed in the two conference games.

Michigan and Penn State are flawed teams, but they are both very good at defending the run, and they even rank first and second in the Big 10 in rushing defense (going by yards per attempt instead of total yards). Hopefully those two poor performances were just a result of facing two ery tough defense. The worst performances of the year are hopefully behind the Knights, but things obviously have to improve. I don't mean to call out or criticize players, but LG Kaleb Johnson came into the year as an NFL prospect and he has not played up to expectations. They will need better play from right tackle too, whether it's from Taj Alexander or JJ Denman.

I believe this unit will play better moving forward, and they pretty much have to for this team to be able to run the ball well with out Paul James.

Kemoko Turay: The Real Deal, But Still a Ways to Go
Turay barely played football in high school and sat out last year as a redshirt, but he supposedly was really impressive on the scout team and carried that level of impressive play over into spring and fall camp this year. Combining a rare blend of length, athleticism, and explosion off the ball, he has burst on to the scene seemingly out of nowhere as one of the best pure pass rushers in college football. He in actually leads the Big 10 in sacks with 5.5.

There is no questioning his success as a pass rusher, but in order for him to become a starter and reach (or come close to) his considerably high ceiling, he is going to need to play better against the run. He is still a bit undersized and learning the intricacies of the defense and run fits and stuff, but those things should come with time. Turay is a great player now, and he will only get scarier for opposing teams in the coming years.


The Secondary Has Improved
Rutgers secondary was historically bad a year ago, so it was almost impossible for them to not get better this year. This group is still pretty young, and they have not exactly been dominant, but they have been good enough to win ball games.

Obviously, they haven't played quarterbacks in the realm of Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles or Derek Carr (all three of whom are starting in the NFL now), but the numbers have improved by leaps and bounds. They allowed 31 passing touchdowns last year, and they have only given up 6 through half a season this year. They were 101st in pass efficiency defense and have made a modest improvement to 79th so far this year. There's still a lot of room for improvement, but they are trending in the right direction.

One noticeable change Joe Rossi has made this year is playing more man coverage. The Knights watched their zone coverages get picked apart last year, and Rossi has made the adjustment back to the coverages the program has had a ton of success with in the past. I also think that Nadir Barnwell has become a very good cover corner this year, and one of the few reliable tacklers this defense has in the secondary.He was a blue chip recruit, so he is only going to get better and hopefully anchor this unit for the next couple years.

Blue Chippers Playing Like Blue Chippers
Speaking of blue chip recruits, Rutgers 4 and 5 star guys are playing like 4 and 5 star guys, finally. After disappointing returns on previous blue chippers like Savon Higgins and Tom Savage, Darius Hamilton, Leonte Carroo, Chris Muller and Barnwell have all lived up to the hype. Hamilton and Carroo are pretty clearly Rutgers' best players on defense and offense respectively, and they both have legitimate cases to being named first team all Big 10 at the midway point of the season.

Muller and Barnwell both had some growing pains as freshman a season ago, but they have both made great strides this year. Muller has been much improved in pass protection, looking quicker and committing less penalties as a result, while still being a powerful run blocker. Barnwell has been Rutgers top cover man, and he has been strong against the run as well.

Stepping Up Oppsite Carroo?
When defenses prepare for Rutgers, they seem to have one thing in mind: stop Leonte Carroo at all costs. This has led to him getting double teamed most of the time, and that theoretically should open the field up for other receivers to do damage. But that was not the case in the early going.

Tightend Tyler Kroft, who was great last year, has not seen a lot of balls come his way, and Rutgers has had trouble finding a #2 receiver with Ruhan Peele yet to play a game and Andre Patton missing four games and being extremely limited in the other two. Andrew Turzilli has emerged as a dangerous deep threat who can "hit home runs" with the secondary rolling over to account for Carroo, and his recent big games will hopefully prevent defenses from focusing al their attention to one guy.

Turzilli's emergence and Patton and Peele hopefully becoming healthy and getting more looks will improve the Knights passing attack and hopefully alleviate the pressure on RU's go to receiver.

Linebckers as steady as ever
There were some articles written recently about Steve Longa's tackle total being down from last year, but his numbers really don't tell the story of how well he has played this year. Teams have tried to pass on Rutgers much more than they have run, in fact only 15 teams have seen fewer rushing attempts against them than Rutgers (and 4 of them have played less games), so naturally that is gong to cause his numbers to drop. Both he and Kevin Snyder have been outstanding in pass coverage and on blitzes this year, and Quinton Gause has been getting into opponent's backfield to make plays. The linebacking group is one of Rutgers' biggest strengths and they have been great so far this year.

At 5-1, Rutgers has gotten off to a great start to the season, and probably have already exceeded expectations (from the outside at least), but they still have a tough road ahead. The Scarlet Knights still have road trips at Ohio State, Nebraska, Michigan State and Maryland to make, as well as home contests against Wisconsin and Indiana. They only need one more win to achieve bowl eligibility for the ninth time in ten years, and I would guess they will be favored in two or three of their last six games. An 8-4 record while going 4-4 in conference play would be a pretty big success in Rutgers inagural Big 10 season. Let's hope they get there.

Friday, October 10, 2014

Week 7 B1G Power Rankings

1. Michigan State
Last Week:27-22 win over Nebraska
This Week: at Purdue
Prediction MSU 45 PUR 14

The Spartans got a big win over the Huskers at home last week, despite nearly blowing a big lead in the fourth quarter. Their run defense stepped up in a big way, limiting Ameer Adbullah to just 44 yards (though he managed to find the endzone twice). Offensively, Conner Cook struggled, but the run game stepped up to put some points on the board.

2. Ohio State
Last Week: 52-24 win over Maryland
This Week: Bye

The Buckeyes clobbered Maryland in the Terrapins first Big 10 home game. Urban Meyer's offense is dangerous and fully operational again after some early hiccups, and the front seven has been a major strength as well. Their secondary has struggled some.

3. Nebraska
Last Week: 27-22 loss to Michigan State
This Week: Bye

I'm not going to knock them too much for a road loss to the best team in the conference. I still think they are the clear front runner in the west.

4. Rutgers
Last Week: 26-24 win over Michigan
This Week: Bye

Gary Nova ranks in the top 10 nationally in passing efficiency after tearing up the Wolverines through the air. The secondary has been improving as well. They face a huge test after the bye when they visit Columbus.

5. Minnesota
Last Week: Bye
This Week: Northwestern
Prediction: MIN 17 NW 14

Jerry Kills's team does not have the most talent in the league, but they are well coached and very disciplined. The defense does not have any stand out players, but they are tough and tackle very well. David Cobb is the offense's bell cow and flies under the national radar because of the other backs in this league.

6. Iowa
Last Week: Bye
This Week: Indiana
Prediction: Iowa 28 Indiana 21

Iowa is planning to play two quarterbacks this week. You know what they say about when you have two quarterbacks.....Their run game is improving and Brandon Shreff may be the best offensive lineman in the country.

7. Northwestern
Last Week: 20-14 win vs Wisconsin
This Week: at Minnesota
Prediction: MIN 17 NW 14

Northwestern's defense has been one of the major surprises in the Big 10 this season. Pat Fitzgerald deserves a lot of credit for keeping his team focused after a pretty bad start to the year.

8. Wisconsin
Last Week: 20-14 loss at Northwestern
This Week: vs Illinois
Prediction: WIS 45 ILL 20

Melvin Gordon seemingly rushes for 200 yards every week behind a powerful offensive line, but the Badgers have absolutley no threats in the passing game. Their defense has been ok, and they are banged up and pretty young on this side of the ball.

9. Penn State
Last Week: Bye
This Week: at Michigan
Prediction: PSU 6 MICH 9

Did you know: superstar Christian Hackenberg has not thrown a touchdown pass since September 6? Part of that is because of their horendous offensive line and running game, but that is still shocking. They might have the best defensie in the conference though, Mike Hull and Anthony Zettel seem like sure fire all conference players.

10. Maryland
Last Week: 52-24 loss to Ohio State
This Week: Bye

The Terps defense has been pretty brutal this year, despite Andre Monroe's superb play upfront. Their offense has been a bit streaky, and like Iowa, they are trying to make a two QB system work.

11. Michigan
Last Week: 26-24 Loss at Rutgers
This Week: Penn State
Prediction MICH 9 PSU 6

I give the Wolverines players a lot of credit. They easily could have packed it in for the year and they played very hard against Rutgers, despite the loss. With Devin Gardner at the helm, their offense at least has a chance to score some point. Their front 7 is very stout, but their secondary can be exposed, as shown lat week.

12. Indiana
Last Week: 49-24 Win over North Texas
This Week: at Iowa
Prediction: Iowa 28 Indiana 21

Tevin Coleman would be the best back in a lot of conferences. They need more from their passing game and defense if they want to become bowl eligible.

13. Purdue
Last Week: 38-27 win over at Illinois
This Week: Michigan State
Prediction: PUR 14 MSU 45

Purdue ran all over the Illini for 349 yards, led by Akeem Hunt who had 177. Austin Appleby played a very efficent game at QB as well.

14. Illinois
Last Week: 38-27 loss to Purdue
This Week: at Wisconsin
Prediction ILL 20 WIS 45

They let Purdue! run all over them. And Wes Lunt is out 4-6 weeks. This team is dead in the water. They only question now seems to be when will Tim Beckham be fired.

Saturday, October 4, 2014

Game 6: Michigan

Greg Schiano shortly after deciding to stay at Rutgers rather than go to Michigan
Rutgers on Offense: I think the Scarlet Knights are going to have to rely on their passing game in this one, Michigan's front seven is very stout against the run, but their secondary has been shaky. Will Gary Nova be up for the challenge in his first Big 10 game following the five interception performance against Penn State? Who knows, it's so tough to get a gauge on him. I'm interested to see if Andre Patton is ready to go, because he could break free for a couple big plays if Leonte Carroo is doubled as expected. Tyler Kroft attacking the seem against the slow Wolverine linebackers could be another factor. Need the offensive line to pass protect better than they did against the Nittany Lions.

Rutgers on Defense: They need to do exactly what they did against Penn State in this one. They need to dominate up front to totally shut down the running game and blitz the ever loving crap out of them. Michigan's offensive line is almost as bad as Penn State's, they need to be exploited. Devin Funchess is my biggest concern on their offense, he should probably be double teamed, they don't have many other weapons. Devin Gardner, like Gary Nova, has been broken by his coaching staff and is extremely turn over prone. The Knights haven't forced many turn over this season, now would be a good time to force a few.

Injuries/Suspensions: Safety Jonathan Aiken will have to sit out the first half after being ejected a week ago for targeting, but Delon Stephenson is listed as probably and should get the start in his place at free safety. Fellow defensive backs Anthony Cioffi, Nadir Barnwell and Gareef Glashan are listed as probably.

Kevin Snyder is also probable, after missing the Navy game and playing sparingly against Tulane. Hopefully he is at full go this week, otherwise LJ Liston will start at middle linebacker.

Back up SAM backer Myles Nash is the only questionable player for this game.

On the other side, Jersey native Jabrill Peppers is questionable.He has not played a lot this year because of some sort of injury, but when healthy he is their nickel back and punt returner.

Prediction: Rutgers 24 Michigan 17

Friday, October 3, 2014

Greg Webb to Transfer to Rutgers

For the third time in the past few months Rutgers has added a former blue chip recruit recruit via transfer, with defensive tackle Greg Webb set to join the Scarlet Knights' program next season. The former Timber Creek (Erial, NJ) star signed with North Carolina out of high school and he is currently attending Hutchinson Community College in Kansas after running into some academic troubles in Chapel Hill. Rutgers has one of the best academic support systems of any football program in the country, so they should be able to keep his academic affairs in order.

Webb is a big, strong, space eating nose tackle type (6'1'' 315) who can stand up against double teams at the point of attack and free up other defenders. The Scarlet Knights have preferred smaller defensive lineman over the years, but having one big guy in the middle certainly won't hurt. He is pretty quick on the interior himself and plays with a very good motor, which big defensive tackles often lack. Rutgers needs all the quality defensive line depth they can get moving forward, so obviously this will be a great addition to the team. He will have three years of eligibility remaining beginning  in 2015.

Hopefully they don't move him to guard.

Thursday, October 2, 2014

How Will Rutgers Deal With the Loss of Paul James?

Rutgers running back Paul James will miss the remainder of the season after suffering a torn ACL in the Scarlet Knights win over Navy two weeks ago. He was injured early in the second quarter when he took a helmet to the knee in the open field. James has suffered a number of serious injuries through out his career, and you can't help but feel awful for him.

James was the catalyst of the Rutgers offense that got off to a pretty good start to the season (save for the disastrous second half against Penn State), so losing him is obviously a big blow. It looked like he added some more speed and power to go along with the tremendous vision and quickness he displayed in the past, rushing for 363 yards (5.8 per carry) with seven total touchdowns through three games and a quarter in 2014. He was arguably the Scarlet Knights best player, but running back is one of the few positions Rutgers is equipped at to deal with an injury.

Desmon Peoples will step in as the nominal starter, but he will not be able to make up for James' production alone. This is going to be more of a replace Jason Giambi's numbers with David Justice and Scott Hatteberg kind of deal. Peoples (4.3 ypc) and Justin Goodwin (4.7 ypc) are both going to see an increase in carries, and they have both proved to be capable ball carriers over the last two seasons.

Goodwin is James lite, possessing patience, vision and quickness comparable to PJ, albeit it with out the speed and power. He did an admirable job starting a few games in place of James last year as a true freshman, and he has proven to be a dangerous receiving threat out of the backfield as well. Peoples is I still think more of a scat back since he doesn't have the patience necessary for the type of running game Rutgers deploys, but his speed has been an asset spelling James so far this year. The offensive line has been very good this year at opening holes for the backs, so that combined with these two should allow Rutgers to continue running the ball effectively with out James.

Another way Rutgers can make up for the loss of James is through the passing game. Offensive coordinator Ralph Friedgen has relied heavily on the running game in the early going since Rutgers has been with out their second and third receivers, Andre Patton and Ruhan Peele. The return of those two will obviously give quarterback Gary Nova more weapons to throw to and hopefully prevent defenses from double teaming Leontee Carroo on basically every play. Patton is a big target who has speed and can stretch the field vertically, while Peele is a slot guy who is tough over the middle and a good route runner.

Losing James obviously sucks for the team, but Rutgers offense should be able to survive his injury this year. The offensive line needs to play as well in conference play as they did in the non conference slate, and Goodwin and Peoples need to just keep being themselves and not try to do too much and the passing game should improve as two of their top three receivers come back from injury. It will be a group effort making up for James lost production, but I think the Knights are capable of doing it, especially with The Fridge at the helm.

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Week 6 B1G Power Rankings and Picks

1. Michigan State

2. Ohio State

3. Nebraska

4. Wisconsin

5. Rutgers

6. Maryland

7. Iowa

8. Minnesota

9. Penn State

10. Indiana

11. Northwestern

12. Illinois

13. Michigan

14. Purdue

Michigan State 45 Nebraska 34

The Huskers travel to East Lansing for a n early season conference show down that very well may be the Big 10 championship game preview. I think AMeer Abdullah will have a big day against the stout Spartan defense, but Conner Cook and Tony Lippett will be able to beat Nebraska's secondary in a shoot out.

Illinois 42 Purdue 24

The Boilers won't be able to stop Wes Lunt and Co.

Ohio State 45 Maryland 27

The young Buckeye offense keeps improving, and Maryland has struggled stopping non incompetent offenses (ie. not Syracuse).

Wisconsion 31 Northwestern 20

The Wildcats got a surprising win at Penn State last week, but Wisconsin's running game will be too powerful for them to stop.

Indiana 52 North Texas 24

The Hoosiers are so erratic, I guess they are due for a good week.

Elsewhere (big week in the SEC West):

Alabama 38 Ole Miss 17

The Rebels scream paper tigers. Lane Kiffin's offense has been explosive and Bo Wallace will probably turn the ball over a bunch of times.

Auburn 34 LSU 24

LSU was lit up by Dak Prescott's dual threat abilities, so I would expect Nick Marshall to have similar success. Plus the Bayou Bengals are starting a true freshman on the road.

Texas A&M 41 Mississippi State 30

Dan Mullen put himself in great position to land a better job (Michigan? Florida?) after winning at LSU. Will he be able to pull of another upset? Kenny Trill says no.

Oklahoma 35 TCU 24

First big test for the Horned Frogs, who appear much improved. Oklahoma might very well be the best team in the country right now.

Notre Dame 24 Stanford 18 (six field goals)

Stanford's offense has been a joke in the red zone and Everett Golsonand the Irish passing attack has been on a roll.




Friday, September 26, 2014

Game 5: Tulane

Tulane So Far

Tulane Coaching

Rutgers on Offense

Rutgers on Defense

Prediction Rutgers 35 Tulane 13

B1G Power Rankings Week 5


1. Michigan State (Previously 1)

Last Week: 73-14 win over Eastern Michigan
This Week: Wyoming
Prediction: MSU 41 WYO 20

They destroyed a very bad Eastern Michigan team and should have no problem with an underrated Wyoming team before Big 10 play begins. Still head and shoulders above everyone else in the conference.

2. Ohio State (2)

Last Week: Bye
This Week: Cincinnati
Prediction: tOSU 30 CIN 27

As Rutgers fans know, Cincinnati always has a good offense and Gunner Kiel could give the Bucs some problems, but JT Barrett and the offense are improving every week.

3. Nebraska (3)

Last Week: 41-31 win over Miami (FL)
This Week: Illinois
Prediction: NEB 37 ILL 24

They won a chippy game over a mediocre Miami team convincingly, and should dispatch of Illinois easily before a big show down in East Lansing next week.

4. Wisconsin (4)

Last Week: 68-17 win over Bowling Green
This Week: USF
Prediction: WIS 55 USF 17

Melvin Gordon went crazy last week and seems to be healthy after being banged up earlier in the year. USFwillnot give their defense any problem.

5. Penn State (5)

Last Week: 48-7 win over UMass
This Week: Northwestern
Prediction: PSU 30 NW 13

Still not looking particularly great, but nobody else warrants being above them yet. They should handle a really bad Northwestern team.

6. Rutgers (7)

Last Week: 31-24 win over Navy
This Week: Tulane
Prediction: Coming Soon

Injuries are mounting for the Scarlet Knights, but their front seven and running game have been very strong.

7. Maryland (8)

Last Week: 34-20 win over Syracuse
This Week: at Indiana
Prediction: UMD 31 IND 35

Syracuse isn't good. I could see Indiana's offense giving this defense some trouble.

8. Indiana (12)

Last Week: 31-27 win over Missouri
This Week: Maryland
Prediction: IND 35 UMD 31

Going on the road and defeating the defending SEC East champions is the Big 10' biggest and most impressive win this year.

9. Iowa (9)

Last Week: 24-20 win over Pitt
This Week: at Purdue
Prediction: Iowa 24 PUR 13

Back up quarterback CJ Beathard lead a second half comeback at Pitt last week and it looks like the Hawkeyes have a QB controversy brewing.

10. Michigan (6)

Last Week: 26-10 loss to Utah
This Week: Minnesota
Prediction: MICH 17 MIN 13

The Wolverine offense has been abysmal against power 5 foes and a QB change might be on the horizon.

11. Minnesota (10)

Last Week: 24-7 win over San Jose State
This Week: at Michigan
Prediction: MIN 13 MICH 17

Pretty solid team, but they can't pass. Hard to see them going into the Big House and taking back the Little Brown Jug.

12. Illinois (11)

Last Week: 42-35 win over Texas State
This Week: at Nebraska
Prediction: NEB 37 ILL 24

Wes Lunt is good, their defense, not so much.

13. Purdue (13)

Last Week: 35-13 win over Southern Illinois
This Week: Iowa
Prediction: PUR 13 Iowa 24

Two wins now.

14. Northwestern (14)

Last Week: 24-7 win over Western Illinois
This Week: at Penn State
Prediction: NW 13 PSU 30

First win in a while.

Rutgers Bounces Back With Win Over Navy

Saturday, September 20, 2014

Game 4: Navy

Rutgers heads down to Annapolis today to take on the Navy Midshipmen and hopefully pick up the pieces from last week's heart breaking loss to Penn State. This is a classic trap game, even though the Knights lost last week, since Navy is a solid team with a dangerous offense and Rutgers could be looking back at last week and/or ahead to playing Michigan in a few weeks. Hopefully they were focused this week in practice, because Navy as always presents an intersesting and difficult challenge.

On offense, Rutgers needs to get Paul James going again. They shied away from the run game to their own detriment last week, and they need to establish James early to get out to a lead and make Navy play from behind. Rutgers offensive line is a lot better than Navy up front, and they need to make their presence felt. If you want to hit Leonte Carroo off of play action to try to get a bigg play and Nova's confidence up, fine. But be the running football team that you are today.

On defense, Rutgers must stay disciplined to stop Navy's triple option and various constraint plays. Interior guys on the fullback, outside guys on the quarterback, ddefensivebacks on the slot backs. It's not that easy, but it can be done. Rutgers has usually played out of the nickel package with a rover (I would expect it to be Davon Jacobs today) to get more speed on the field to stop run, so watch for that. Let Darius Hamilton and co. make plays in the backfield and get them off schedule. That will really throw a wrench in things. As will getting out to a big lead and making them pass. They do not want to do that/

Rutgers should win this game, but who knows how focused they will be for various reasons. Hopefully the offense gets back on track and the defense builds upon last week.

Rutgers 24 Navy 21

Half Time Injury Update: Starting cornerback Nadir Barnwell and starting linebacker Kevin Snyder both did not suit up today. Not having Snyder's veteran presence could have hurt against the triple option team, but the linebackers are doing fine. Barnwell is good in run support and Navy is throwing effectively so it hurts not having him,

Wide receivers Andre Patton and Ruhan Peele are both out for the fourth consecutive game.

Runningback Paul James went down with an apparent leg injury and looks to be done for the day.

Free safety Delon Stephenson also seems to be out for the rest of this one with an injury.

Friday, September 19, 2014

Opponent Preview: Navy

Tomorrow's Opponent, but Future American Heroes
Navy has become one of Rutgers most common out of conference opponents, and that makes sense. They are located in the northeast and provide an interesting and tough test for the team year in and year out before conference play kicks into full gear. Tomorrow will be the 16th meeting between the two programs in the last 22 years, and Rutgers leads the all time series against the Midshipmen 12-7.

The Midshipmen So Far...
Navy is off to a 2-1 start, with road wins over Temple and Texas State after a season opening home loss to Ohio State. They gave the Buckeyes quite a scare in week one, as they trailed by only three points for much of the fourth quarter, before Ohio State eventually pulled away.

Coaching
Ken Niumatalolo is in his seventh year as the head man in Annapolis and he owns a 51-31 record, with five bowl appearances and two bowl wins. Niumatalolo is from Hawaii and played for the quarterback for the Rainbow Warriors before becoming a long time offensive assistant at Navy, taking over the head coaching position from Paul Johnson who left for Georgia Tech after the 2007 regular season.

Offense
Niumatalolo runs the triple option offense out of the flexbone, and it has worked so well under him and Johnson that the other two service academies copied the Navy model on offense in their rebuilding efforts. The triple option was once the most en vouge offense across college football 30-40 years ago, and it only stopped for the most part because of the recruiting disadvantages it put some power programs in (not going to get you to the NFL! Most opposing coaches say). The service academies don't have to worry as much about recruiting for obvious reasons. This offense still works though, despite only being run by the three service academies, Georgia Tech and Georgia Southern at the FBS level.

Defending Navy's offense and the triple option in general is extra difficult because you not only have to account for the fullback, quarterback and slot back, all of whom are potential ball carriers on most plays, but the counters and traps and the occasional pass plays that will gash you if they get you off guard as well. It is incredibly tough to defend if you do not have experience defending it, but Joe Rossi and some of Rutgers players have experience against it after playing Army in 2012 and Navy in 2011.

The Navy offense is led by quarterback Keenan Reynolds, who rushed for 1466 yards and 31 touchdowns a year ago. The junior signal caller is a very elusive runner and a master ball handler, making him the perfect quarterback for this type of offense. He is not a major passing threat, but he has thrown for 13 touchdowns against only 4 interceptions while averaging over 8 yards an attempt in his 2+ years as a starter. He missed last week's game against Texas State with a knee injury, but he is expected to start tomorrow.

Navy's offensive line is pretty experienced, led by third year starting guard Jake Zuzek. Most triple option teams are pretty small lines(I remember a few years ago Georgia Tech started a running back at right tackle after a few injuries), but all of the Midshipmen starting five are north of 275. They are smart players and will get great angles on their and they will cut block you. You have to watch out for that. This group is not over powering though, and they really don't need to be.

Senior slot back Noah Copeland is Navy's leading rusher and sophomore Jamir Tillman is their leading receiver.

Defense
Navy runs a 3-4 defense, and they lost a lot of starters from last years group, including appropriately named rover Wave Ryder. They still have a lot of experience on this side of the ball, however, as their top six leading tacklers are upperclassmen.

Navy is bigger upfront than you would expect, and they are of course very disciplined. Not many explosive play makers in this group, and they will give up a lot of yards, but they are usually able to prevent you from making big plays and lock it down in the redzone.

Conclusion
Navy always presents an interesting challenge with their now rare triple option offense, and I think there are a ton of benefits to playing a team like this. Having to stop the option can teach a normally fast and attacking offense to stay back and stay disciplined in your run fits, and that should carry over into conference play. They are also not a great team on defense and could boost the offense's confidence after last week's disaster. The Midshimpmen are a regional rival and a normally solid team, they are exactly the kind of program Rutgers should play in their out of conference slate, even when they go to a 9 game conference schedule.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Big 10 Power Rankings and Picks for Week 4

1. Michigan State (Prev 1)

Last Week:Bye
This Week: Eastern Michigan
Prediction: MSU -45

Still the best and most well rounded team in the conference by a wide margin. They should have the top defense in the league, and Connor Cook and Tony Lippett are dangerous in the passing game. Look for them to get their ground game going against a week Eastern Michigan team this week.

2. Ohio State (2)

Last Week: 66-0 Win over Ken State
This Week: Bye

The Buckeyes really took their frustrations out on the Golden Flashes last week. Even though Ken State is not very good, their offense looked much improved from the first two games. They are very young, they will get better as the season goes along.

3. Nebraska (3)

Last Week: 55-19 Win over Fresno State
This Week: Miami (FL)
Prediction: NEB -8

Bo Pelini's team bounced back from last weeks narrow escape against McNeese State by taking care of business out west. Ameer Abdullah is the best running back in the conference, and the defense looked better against the Bulldogs. The Canes are a bad team, they should not cause a problem playing a night game in Lincoln.

4. Wisconsin (4)

Last Week: Bye
This Week: Bowling Green
Prediction: BG +27 with the Badgers winning outright

The Badgers still have a strong defense and running game, but they face a tough MAC opponent. Let's see if Tanner McEvoy can throw against an FBS team. Bowling Green coach Dino Babers is from the Art Briles coaching tree, so they could have trouble with their speedy spread offense.

5. Penn State (7)

Last Week: Sigh
This Week: UMass
Prediction: PSU -27

The Nittany Lions have a bunch of glaring weaknesses, but they have the best quarterback in the conference in Christian Hackenberg and maybe the best defensive player in the league in Anthony Zettel. Umass played Colorado, Boston College and Vanderbilt tough, but the "Joe Out" crowd might give them problems.

6. Michigan (5)

Last Week: 34-10 Win over Miami (OH)
This Week: Utah
Prediction: Utah +4

Michigan seems to be a classic "the sum is less than the whole of it's parts" team. Turnovers are a problem, as is their young offensive line. The Utes usually have a physical front seven that will probably give them fits up front.

7. Rutgers (8)

Last Week: 13-10 Loss to Penn State
This Week: at Navy
Prediction: Coming Soon

Yes, Rutgers lost and still moved up. This is not a good conference, folks. Gary Nova showed last week that he is still turn over prone, but the defense stepped up in a huge way. At the very least, they won't be pushovers in their new conference.

8. Maryland (10)

Last Week: 40-37 loss to West Virginia
This Week:aat Syracuse
Prediction: MD pick em


I watched most of the Terps game last week, and they were lucky they only lost by three. The Mountaineers dominated them, but shot themselves in the foot with turnovers, inefficiency in the redzone and the total lack of ability to defend the zone read. So yes, they looked bad and still moved up.
9. Iowa (6)

Last Week: 20-17 loss to Iowa State
This Week: at Pitt
Prediction: Iowa +7

Brandon Schreff surprisingly started the CyHawk Game last week, but it wasn't enough to jump start their offense. It is a rivalry game, but Iowa State is a middle of the road Big 12 team at best. I'd expect a low scoring contest with the Panthers.

10. Minnesota (9)

Last Week: 30-7 loss at TCU
This Week: San Jose State
Prediction: Minn -10

Facing a Gary Patterson defense with a one dimensional offense is no way to go through life.Their own defense didn't look great wither.

11. Illinois (12)

Last Week: 44-19 loss at Washington
This Week: vs Texas State
Prediction: Ill -13

They played a very sloppy game in Seattle  and the defense continues to be troublesome.

12. Indiana (11)

Last Week: 45-42 loss to Bowling Green
This Week: at Missouri
Prediction: Mizz -14

Their offense finally looked explosive, but their defense fell apart in the second half. Missouri is one of the better team in the SEC East, this will be a tough one.

13. Purdue (14)

Last Week: 30-14 loss to Notre Dame
This Week: Southern Illinois

They were actually somewhat competitive against the Irish, so that's showing improvement!

14. Northwestern (13)

Last Week: Bye
This Week: Western Illinois

They are bad and injured too.

Other Picks:
Florida State -14 over Clemson
No Winston, no problem.Their defense and run game are still great and Clemson willingly starts their second best QB.

Oklahoma -8 over West Virginia

Alabama-15 over Florida

Virginia +15, BYU outright

The Hoos defense has been great so far, they should slow down Taysom Hill.

This is another pretty weak slate of games across the country. Can't wait until conference play kicks into full gear.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Rutgers Blows it on B1G Stage, What Else is New

In what was arguably the most anticipated game in  school history, their very first Big 10 game against the hated, neighboring Nittany Lions of Penn State, Rutgers blew it on the big stage like they have so many times in the past. The lost by a score of 13-10 on Saturday in front of a school record 53,774 fans. The Scarlet Knight defense stepped up in a huge way, but they were not enough to overcome an offense that turned the ball over five times, could not convert a first down and inexplicably abandoned the run game when they were shut out in the second half.

On their very first play from scrimmage, Paul James cut back and eluded tacklers for a fifteen yard pick up. He picked up 4 yards on the following play, looking strong out of the gate, but the drive was then derailed by a holding penalty. Kaleb Johnson was flagged for the infraction, bear hugging Anthony Zettel on a quick hitting pass, forcing the Knights to punt after two incompletions. Rutgers looked to be in business on their second possession as well, with Gary Nova hitting Leonte Carroo for 16 yards on a comebacker off play action, but Janarion Grant let a quick bubble screen bounce off his facemask into the waiting arms of Trevor Williams for an interception. That one was not his fault, but Nova threw another interception on the offense's very next play, throwing to James too early with a safety barreling down on him with a blitz. If he stepped up in the pocket he would have been fine.

Nova was able to shake those two interceptions off, and put together two very impressive scoring drives in the second quarter. He hit Carroo again off play action on a square in for a 17 yard gain, to open the drive, before giving Penn State fits with his....legs? Nova scrambled for a bunch of yards on the ground during Rutgers only touchdown drive, and also converted a 3rd and 1 on a sneak. He punched the ball in himself on a 14 yard scramble up the middle against a blitz, after being set up by Desmon Peoples' 21 yard scamper off tackle. After not being able to take advantage of great field position following a punt, the Knights went on a long, methodical drive after starting on their own seven to get a field goal just before the half. Carroo hauled in another long reception over the middle and Tyler Kroft's presence was finally felt with two catches on the drive to set it up. Grant also somewhat redeemed himself with two big third down conversions, but the Knights had to settle 32 yard kick from Kyle Federico because they were out of time outs and spiked the ball instead of throwing to the endzone with 20 seconds remaining in the half.

It's easy to criticize a coach for wasting time outs, but it's hard to tell if they don't have the right personnel on the field at a given time or what ever. I don't know why Flood used his first two time outs of the half when he did, but using them may have cost the team four points. They also never went uptempo despite the quickly evaporating clock, and again, that cost them. The clock management on this last drive before the half really hurt the Knights in hindsight.

The offense in the second half was a complete disaster. They went three and out to open the third quarter, and only converted one first down on their next possession Following a turn over, Ralph Friedgen called for the home run ball on the first play after a sudden change (as you should, you can usually catch the defense disorganized) and Nova promptly forced the ball deep to a double teamed Carroo and was picked off for the third time. Penalties besieged their final possession of the third period, and Nova again turned the ball over while forcing it to Carroo to open the fourth. With a four point lead and 5:33 left on the clock, Rutgers kept throwing and gave the ball back to Penn State with 3 minutes and a chance to win it. After falling behind for the first time, Nova was unable to move the ball and then threw his fifth interception of the day because he --you guessed it!-- forced the ball to a double teamed Carroo.

Paul James only carried the ball six times in the second half, and that can not happen. They are a running football team and he is an outstanding back, put the ball in his hands 30 times! Especially when you are trying to drain the clock! Flood's post game comments indicated that he shied away from the run in the second half because of Penn State defensive tackle Anthony Zettel and while Zettel did have a monster game, you should not change your game plan out of fear! Run to the other side or cut block* him down to the ground, he can't make plays there. Nova was struggling and they decided to keep putting the ball in his hands. I just do not get it. The boxscore says they ran the same amount as they threw, but Nova scrambled or was sacked seven times. 61% of their play calls were passes.

*Cut blocks have a bad reputation, especially after those idiots at The Citadel admitted they were intentionally trying to injure Florida State players with them. but they are 100% legal and do not injure defenders if you are doing it correctly. Get Zettel down on the ground, run to the outside and let James do his thing. Jeez.

The defense was outstanding in this game and Joe Rossi deserves a ton of credit. This unit looked all out of sorts and undisciplined in the first two games, but they played vintage Rutgers defense all night, and held the high powered Penn State passing attack to just 13 points on the night. Rossi kept dialing up the blitz (I think they blitzed for the first time since 2012 in this game /sarcasm) and Penn State's offensive line was completely overwhelmed. Rutgers stayed in base personnel through out the evening against the Nittany Lions' mostly three wide sets, and were able to dominate the Lions up front to stop the run.

Penn state moved the ball to Rutgers 30 yard line on their first possession of the game, but Darius Hamilton was able to sneak into the back field to bring Bill Belton down for a two yard loss, leading to a third down incompletion and a punt. The crowd --which was great through out the contest-- forced Penn State to jump offsides on their second drive, leading to a three and out. Gareef Glashen and Dave Milewski met in the back field for a tackle behind the line on a 2nd and 1 run, and Quentin Gause and Djwany Mera combined to sack Christian Hackenberg and force another punt. The Nittany Lions were then given great field position following an interception late in the opening quarter, but a strong pass rush led by Hamilton forced a holding penalty and Hackenberg to throw a ball away and then scramble for a minimal gain. They had to settle for a 34 yard attempt from Sam Ficken, but Kemoko Turay showed off his vertical and blocked the kick. Early in the second quarter Nadir Barnwell stepped up to make a play against the run in the backfield and a blitzing Kevin Snyder sacked Hackenberg on third down,  thwarted Penn State's drive to force another punt. This one, however, was blocked by Leonte Carroo. Huge props to him for being willing to play special teams.

The Nittany Lions again punted after Hackenberg scrambled away from heavy third down pressure and ended the half with a kneel down. The Scarlet Knights had a 10-0 lead going into the locker room, but this felt a lot like the 2012 Louisville game where they dominated the first half, and lo and behold, they once again fell apart in the second half, despite the defense's best efforts.

Rutgers' defense continued to dominate early in the third quarter, forcing a punt the first time they took the field in the second half, before Lorenzo Waters picked Hackenberg off over the middle. But following another Nova interception, the defense started to bend a little bit, albeit it with out breaking. Hackenberg was finally able to move the ball down field, but the Lions once again had to settle for a field goal after Darius Hamilton sacked him twice in the redzone (Snyder got in there for half a sack too). Ficken actually made this attempt from 32 yards out to make it 10-3. The Knights blitzing finally backfired on the next Penn state drive when DaeSeasn Hamilton broke free for a 47 yard gain on third down. Turay was able to get a big pressure though, forcing the Lions to settle for another Ficken field goal. A Waters sack led in part to two more punts, and Rutgers was one stop away from winning the game. The defense came up big all night, but they were unable to do so one last time.

Hackenberg completed a 15 yard pass to Geno Lewis, but Gareef Glashen went for the strip instead of the tackle--a big no-no in this situation (KNOW THE SITUATION, YOU PRACTICE THIS STUFF!)-- and let Lewis escape for a big 53 yard gainer. Penn State appeared to score the go ahead touchdown on a pass to Jesse James, but Hamilton forced a hold and it was called back. James scoring would have been much easier to sallow than the eventual seven yard Big Time Football Bill Belton score, because that one play allowed him to talk shit despite a very poor game overall from him. The defense didn't get it done here, but they should have never been in this situation. The offense had to do more. The defense should hold its' head high and feel great after this one, despite not getting the ultimate result they desired.

Three players, one at all three levels, deserve special recognition for their performance. Hamilton ran ravage through a terrible Penn State line and was in the backfield all day recording sacks and forcing penalties. Kevin Snyder also did a great job inside against the run and was a monster on blitzes. Nadir Barnwell made a few big plays in the secondary as well, against both the run and the pass. It was quite a performance by the entire defense as a whole, but these three players were outstanding in particular.


Rutgers once again came up small on a big stage despite a dominant defensive performance because their offense made too many mistakes and was flat out was not good enough. Clock management and the odd (bad) decision to abandon the run game did not help either. It is getting extremely frustrating watching this program repeatedly fail when given big opportunities to take a step forward and gain some national respect for the same reasons over and over again. Not to go all Maddog on you, but ALL I WANT IS ONE BIG WIN!  IS THAT TOO MUCH TO ASK FOR? ONE!? They will once again get the opportunity in a few weeks against a struggling Michigan team, after hopefully picking up the pieces of this one against Navy and Tulane. Beat a blue blood, make the Big 10 notice you.

Saturday, September 13, 2014

Game 3: Penn State

This the moment Rutgers fans have been waiting for for years. The Scarlet Knights will make their Big 10 debut against the hated Penn State Nittany Lions in prime time, on national TV. The crowd will be rocking.

Penn Stae has a tough run defense, but Rutgers still has to ride Paul James. He's their best player. I would expect Tyler Kroft to get a lot of opportunites tonight as well against the Lions zone coverages.

On defense, Rutgers has to keep Penn State one dimensional. Get a pass rush from the front four and stop the run with seven. Force Hackenburg to make mistakes. Their line is inexperienced and crowd noise will be a factor.

Rutgers 34 Penn State 31

Rutgers Small Defensive Line Could Work in the Big 10

One of the narratives both locally and nationally heading into the Pinstripe Bowl was that playing Note Dame would be a "Big 10 preview" for Rutgers. While the Fighting Irish are not Big 10 members themselves, they play a very similar style of football as most teams in the conference, relying on their big offensive and defensive lines. Add in the fact that they are from the midwest, play a bunch of Big 10 teams every year and have a tendency to lose BCS games, you can see how this comparison works.

While Rutgers stayed competitive through out the contest against Notre Dame, they were some red flags raised about how they would hold up in the Big 10 next year. The Fighting Irish ran ravage over the Scarlet Knights defense in the second half behind future first round draft pick Zach Martin (who actually wrecked the 49ers too last Sunday) and the power run game. The easy conclusion to draw from that is Rutgers can not rely on small, speedy defensive lineman like they have in the past in the Big 10 moving forward. I do not agree with that assessment at all.

The reason Rutgers struggled to defend the run in the second half in that game in the Bronx was a matter of two things: lack of depth and their own inability to pick up first downs on offense to give the defense a breather. The depth concern was mostly due to a large number of injuries up front suffered through out the season, and as good as Dave Milewski is, he can not be a defensive tackle under any circumstance like he was in this game. He is just to small for that. The offense issues are well documented, but there is hope that they will improve there and that has nothing to do with the defense.

People focus too much on the negatives of having a small defensive line against bigger offensive lines, and ignore the positives. Rutgers' defensive lines are not only smaller, but a lot quicker than those massive offensive lines too. The Scarlet Knights have played a few teams over the years who adopt this big lineman philosophy and they have generally had a lot of success. The most notable example is obviously Eric Foster giving Louisville's big line a bunch of problems in that 2006 epic with his quickness, and they have consistently held the Cardinals' running game in check despite the size disadvantage over the years. They've also played well against Arkansas' big offensive lines the last two years. Remember that last year's Razorback staff had just migrated from Wisconsin of the Big 10 and had a very Big 10 mentality. Quickness can be just as dangerous, if not more so than size and power.

Sometimes you can have success when you change the status quo philosophically in a new conference. You don't have to go back that far, just look at Texas A&M in 2012. The Aggies came to the SEC from the Big 12 with their high tempo, wide open second generation air raid attack and tore the conference up, inducing the big bully on the block Alabama in Tuscaloosa. They of course had a ton of talent on the offensive line and at receiver and a Heisman winner at quarterback, but Kevin Sumlin and Kliff Kingsbury's scheme played just as big a part in their success. They even caused Nick Saban to publicly complain about up tempo offenses. Being at the other end of the philosophical spectrum from most of the teams in your conference seems scary in theory, but those other teams are often illequipped and maybe don't know how to handle your new and different style.

To make having an undersized defensive line work, you need great players, just like any other scheme in the history of football. Darius Hamilton was a five star recruit playing the three technique in high school, and Rutgers' scheme allowed him to have great freshman and sophomore years inside, when most people projected him at end. Defensive end Kemoko Turay is also considered undersized by normal standards, but he can be a dangerous speed rusher thanks to the Scarlet Knights embracing speed over size. Preferring a different type of player can work to your advantage in recruiting, since you are maybe not going head to head with the Michigans and Ohio States fort he top players you identify for your scheme.

Defensive line depth is important for everyone, but it's even more so when you are small up front. Since Rutgers is going to be a lot smaller and faster, they are going to need to sub liberally to stay fresh and continue to use their speed and quickness to their advantage thorough out the game. They will at minimum have to roll eight deep on the front four, and while they have eight quality lineman now, injuries could derail that. Recruiting at this position will be very important moving forward because of this. It also wouldn't hurt if they stopped moving every defensive lineman over 270 to guard.

Personally, I love Rutgers having small quick defensive lines. Being fast and attacking is the defensive identity Rutgers has had since Greg Schiano took over, and they have had a ton of success doing it over the years. You don't change who you are and what has made you successful just to fit into your new league. It's ok to be different sometimes, and I think Rutgers defensive line will perform well in Big 10 play, beginning tomorrow.

Friday, September 12, 2014

Opponent Preview: Penn State

"College football is at it's best when it's regional," you have no doubt heard a million times. Penn State is one of Rutgers' closest neighbors, and with any hope, will become one of their biggest rivals. Both fan bases seem to hate each other, both programs fight over many of the same recruits, and both teams appear to be pretty equal talent wise at the moment, with a lot of strengths and a few fatal flaws. A lot of ingredients for a rivalry are there, they just need to a bunch of competitive games against one another in order for it to be one.

The Scarlet Knights and Nittany Lions have played each other 24 times previously, and the series is not been pretty for Rutgers. They are just 2-22 all time against that team out west (the wins came in 1918 and 1988), but that's ancient history now. The teams last met in 1995 when the oldest players on both teams were just three years old. But Rutgers is going to have to win some games head to head in order to make this an actual rivalry.

The Lions So Far
Penn State is off to a 2-0 start with wins over UCF and Akron. They beat the Golden Knights 26-24 on a last second field goal in their season opener in Dublin, Ireland and they beat the Zips 21-3 in their home opener last week. They also received a boot off the field when their NCAA sanctioned post season ban lifted this week, making them eligible for a bowl game and the Big 10 Championship Game this year.

Coaching
First year head coach James Franklin is off to a 2-0 start in Happy Valley after leading a major turn around at his previous job at Vanderbilt. The East Stroudsburg, PA native lead the Commodores to 24-15 record and three bowl games in his three seasons in Nashville, finishing ranked twice and as you may have noticed, they are in pretty bad shape with out him. Franklin's background is on the offensive side of the ball, and he has NFL experience and was the offensive coordinator at Maryland under Rutgers offensive coordinator Ralph Friedgen at Maryland.

Franklin has of course also been a pain in the ass for Rutgers on the recruiting trail, and he has thus far led up to his promise to dominate the region. At least off the field. I've seen a lot of people refer to Franklin as an elite coach in the same breath as Urban Meyer, but I don't think he is in the class yet, especially since Meyer has two national championships under his belt. Franklin may very well be on his way to being at that level, but he has more to prove it.

Offense
Offensive coordinator John Donovan followed Franklin from Vandy to State College, and he also coached under Friedgen at Maryland. Donovan and Franklin run a pro style offense for the most part, spending most of their time under center in traditional one and two back sets, but the Lions line up in shot gun quite a bit as well. Against Akron, Penn State's run game consisted mostly of man blocking, running mostly power and counter type plays with a few draws sprinkled in. Passing wise, they use play action often, utilizing a lot of pro style pass concepts (the levels concepts seemed to be their favorite) and keep defenses honest with bubble screens. They ran a number of packaged plays where the quarterback decides whether to give inside to the running back on an inside zone or to the receiver outside on the bubble too. And you have to play disciplined against them because they will break out a reverse or a half back pass against you.

The focal point of the Nittany Lions' offense is undoubtedly quarterback Christian Hackenberg. Hackenberg came to Penn State last year as a five star recruit and became the starter immediately. Under the tutelage of Bill O'Brien, he threw 20 TDs and 10 INTs while averaging 7.5 yards a pass and completing 59%  of his passes. Not bad for a true freshman. There aren't many quarterbacks in the country who have a better skill set, as he has a very strong arm, tremendous accuracy and great footwork and feel inside the pocket. He has to shoulder a heavy load this year and he knows it, running for his life quite often and forcing passes to well covered receivers. He makes big plays and has improved in year two, but he will turn the ball over.

Penn State's offensive line has been terrible in their first two games, to put it kindly. They generate absolutely no push in the run game (2.76 yards per attempt) and Hackensberg either has to move up in the pocket or run for his life every time he drops back. This is a very inexperienced group, as only left tackle Donovan Smith returns from last year's line, and they are missing starting left guard Miles Diffenbach who is out with a knee injury. Their line also features two starters from New Jersey (left guard Brandon Mahon and center Angelo Mangiro). This game against Rutgers will be the first true college road experience four of the five starters in this group have, the crowd noise could cause a lot of communication and snap count problems for them, so that's just another thing working against them.

At running back, Big Time Football Bill Belton, Akeel Lynch and Zach Zwinak share time. Zwinak is the power guy who will run up the middle, while Lynch and Belton are speedy backs who run mostly outside. Belton is a major threat in the passing game as well. At tight end, Penn State is with out former five star recruit Andrew Breneman, but Jesse James has stepped in nicely for him, recording two touchdown receptions in their first two games. Penn State lost arguably the best reciver they've ever had Allen Robinson to the NFL, but DaeSeasn Hamilton and Geno Lewis both have 14+ receptions and over 200 yards through two games this year. It's worth noting they both had more trouble getting open when they were pressed at the line.

Defense
Defensive coordinator Bob Shoop also came over from Vanderbilt to Penn State with James Franklin. Shoop's defense aligns in a 4-3 front with two deep safeties, and he loves to bring the blitz. The Nittany Lions play mostly zone coverages with the two deep safeties, but they don't just sit in cover two, they mix it up quite a bit with some quarters coverage and cover 3 and cover 1 rober. The defensive front stunts a lot in passing situations, and they bring all kind of linebackers up the middle on blitzes on all downs.

Penn State is able to play with two deep safeties at all times because their front seven is very stout. Their defense ranks fourth nationally in rushing defense through two weeks, led by senior middle linebacker Mike Hull, who has 22 tackles this year after recording 78 a year ago. Hull is flanked by two relatively inexperienced outside linebackers, including Jersey native Brandon Bell. On the defensive line, Austin Johnson is a big space eater inside and his partner inside Anthony Zettel is a very quick three technique who has two sacks so far this year.

After struggling somewhat last season against the pass, Penn State has been in the middle of the pack nationally in terms of pass efficiency defense through two games. They have a lot of experience returning in their back four, with two seniors and two juniors starting. This is one of the biggest secondaries you will see, as all four starters are over 6'0'' and close to 200 lbs. It's worth noting that UCF had a lot more success passing in the second half after they made a change at quarterback.

Conclusion
Penn State has a star quarterback in Christian Hackberg and some dangerous passing weapons, but they can not run the ball and their poor offensive line play is something that can expose this unit. Make them one dimensional and force Hackenberg into some mistakes and you have a chance. Their defense is tough against the run, and are nasty with the blitzes, but they can be beat through the air. James Franklin is a very good coach, and this teams has some really strong areas to go along with their fatal flaws. This is a good team,but they are by no means unbeatable.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Kiy Hester Transfers to Rutgers

Freshman safety Kiy Hester has transferred from Miami (FL) to Rutgers, the school announced yesterday. Hester, who attended DePaul Catholic in Wayne, NJ, originally committed to Rutgers last summer, but he chose to attend school elsewhere after his offer from the Knights was in jeopardy when he informed the coaching staff he intended to take official visits to other schools. He eventually picked Miami and was with the team all summer, but he felt he needed to move closer to home to help his mother who is dealing with some health issues.

Hester will sit out this season and have four years of eligibility beginning next season. The Hurricanes initially blocked Hester's release to Rutgers, since they play each other in 2018, but they eventually relented.

Hester is a huge addition for Rutgers. He was a blue chip 4 star recruit with offers from basically everywhere in the Big 10, and as you may have heard, defensive back is a pretty big problem for the Scarlet Knights both in the near and long term. Hester is a well built 6'0'' 205 and capable of playing either free or strong safety. He is a very physical player who delivered some bone rattling hits in high school, and he also posses tremendous range and ball skills in coverage (he played some receiver in high school, which helped him in this regard). I would expect him to compete for a starting job as soon as he is eligible next season. Here's some video.

Hester also is close with a number of top high school prospects in New Jersey, and that certainly won't hurt recruiting moving forward. He is supposedly good friends with Kareem Walker, the #1 2016 recruit in the country according to 247, who he played with at DePaul last year. So that's cool.

Adding Hester is a huge coup for Kyle Flood. He is a potential impact player at a position of need in the near and long term, and he will help with future recruiting classes. Hester wanted to be a Scarlet Knight anyway, and only wasn't on a matter of principal that he wasn't, but things worked out in the end. Hopefully his mom gets healthy.