Friday, September 12, 2014

Opponent Preview: Penn State

"College football is at it's best when it's regional," you have no doubt heard a million times. Penn State is one of Rutgers' closest neighbors, and with any hope, will become one of their biggest rivals. Both fan bases seem to hate each other, both programs fight over many of the same recruits, and both teams appear to be pretty equal talent wise at the moment, with a lot of strengths and a few fatal flaws. A lot of ingredients for a rivalry are there, they just need to a bunch of competitive games against one another in order for it to be one.

The Scarlet Knights and Nittany Lions have played each other 24 times previously, and the series is not been pretty for Rutgers. They are just 2-22 all time against that team out west (the wins came in 1918 and 1988), but that's ancient history now. The teams last met in 1995 when the oldest players on both teams were just three years old. But Rutgers is going to have to win some games head to head in order to make this an actual rivalry.

The Lions So Far
Penn State is off to a 2-0 start with wins over UCF and Akron. They beat the Golden Knights 26-24 on a last second field goal in their season opener in Dublin, Ireland and they beat the Zips 21-3 in their home opener last week. They also received a boot off the field when their NCAA sanctioned post season ban lifted this week, making them eligible for a bowl game and the Big 10 Championship Game this year.

Coaching
First year head coach James Franklin is off to a 2-0 start in Happy Valley after leading a major turn around at his previous job at Vanderbilt. The East Stroudsburg, PA native lead the Commodores to 24-15 record and three bowl games in his three seasons in Nashville, finishing ranked twice and as you may have noticed, they are in pretty bad shape with out him. Franklin's background is on the offensive side of the ball, and he has NFL experience and was the offensive coordinator at Maryland under Rutgers offensive coordinator Ralph Friedgen at Maryland.

Franklin has of course also been a pain in the ass for Rutgers on the recruiting trail, and he has thus far led up to his promise to dominate the region. At least off the field. I've seen a lot of people refer to Franklin as an elite coach in the same breath as Urban Meyer, but I don't think he is in the class yet, especially since Meyer has two national championships under his belt. Franklin may very well be on his way to being at that level, but he has more to prove it.

Offense
Offensive coordinator John Donovan followed Franklin from Vandy to State College, and he also coached under Friedgen at Maryland. Donovan and Franklin run a pro style offense for the most part, spending most of their time under center in traditional one and two back sets, but the Lions line up in shot gun quite a bit as well. Against Akron, Penn State's run game consisted mostly of man blocking, running mostly power and counter type plays with a few draws sprinkled in. Passing wise, they use play action often, utilizing a lot of pro style pass concepts (the levels concepts seemed to be their favorite) and keep defenses honest with bubble screens. They ran a number of packaged plays where the quarterback decides whether to give inside to the running back on an inside zone or to the receiver outside on the bubble too. And you have to play disciplined against them because they will break out a reverse or a half back pass against you.

The focal point of the Nittany Lions' offense is undoubtedly quarterback Christian Hackenberg. Hackenberg came to Penn State last year as a five star recruit and became the starter immediately. Under the tutelage of Bill O'Brien, he threw 20 TDs and 10 INTs while averaging 7.5 yards a pass and completing 59%  of his passes. Not bad for a true freshman. There aren't many quarterbacks in the country who have a better skill set, as he has a very strong arm, tremendous accuracy and great footwork and feel inside the pocket. He has to shoulder a heavy load this year and he knows it, running for his life quite often and forcing passes to well covered receivers. He makes big plays and has improved in year two, but he will turn the ball over.

Penn State's offensive line has been terrible in their first two games, to put it kindly. They generate absolutely no push in the run game (2.76 yards per attempt) and Hackensberg either has to move up in the pocket or run for his life every time he drops back. This is a very inexperienced group, as only left tackle Donovan Smith returns from last year's line, and they are missing starting left guard Miles Diffenbach who is out with a knee injury. Their line also features two starters from New Jersey (left guard Brandon Mahon and center Angelo Mangiro). This game against Rutgers will be the first true college road experience four of the five starters in this group have, the crowd noise could cause a lot of communication and snap count problems for them, so that's just another thing working against them.

At running back, Big Time Football Bill Belton, Akeel Lynch and Zach Zwinak share time. Zwinak is the power guy who will run up the middle, while Lynch and Belton are speedy backs who run mostly outside. Belton is a major threat in the passing game as well. At tight end, Penn State is with out former five star recruit Andrew Breneman, but Jesse James has stepped in nicely for him, recording two touchdown receptions in their first two games. Penn State lost arguably the best reciver they've ever had Allen Robinson to the NFL, but DaeSeasn Hamilton and Geno Lewis both have 14+ receptions and over 200 yards through two games this year. It's worth noting they both had more trouble getting open when they were pressed at the line.

Defense
Defensive coordinator Bob Shoop also came over from Vanderbilt to Penn State with James Franklin. Shoop's defense aligns in a 4-3 front with two deep safeties, and he loves to bring the blitz. The Nittany Lions play mostly zone coverages with the two deep safeties, but they don't just sit in cover two, they mix it up quite a bit with some quarters coverage and cover 3 and cover 1 rober. The defensive front stunts a lot in passing situations, and they bring all kind of linebackers up the middle on blitzes on all downs.

Penn State is able to play with two deep safeties at all times because their front seven is very stout. Their defense ranks fourth nationally in rushing defense through two weeks, led by senior middle linebacker Mike Hull, who has 22 tackles this year after recording 78 a year ago. Hull is flanked by two relatively inexperienced outside linebackers, including Jersey native Brandon Bell. On the defensive line, Austin Johnson is a big space eater inside and his partner inside Anthony Zettel is a very quick three technique who has two sacks so far this year.

After struggling somewhat last season against the pass, Penn State has been in the middle of the pack nationally in terms of pass efficiency defense through two games. They have a lot of experience returning in their back four, with two seniors and two juniors starting. This is one of the biggest secondaries you will see, as all four starters are over 6'0'' and close to 200 lbs. It's worth noting that UCF had a lot more success passing in the second half after they made a change at quarterback.

Conclusion
Penn State has a star quarterback in Christian Hackberg and some dangerous passing weapons, but they can not run the ball and their poor offensive line play is something that can expose this unit. Make them one dimensional and force Hackenberg into some mistakes and you have a chance. Their defense is tough against the run, and are nasty with the blitzes, but they can be beat through the air. James Franklin is a very good coach, and this teams has some really strong areas to go along with their fatal flaws. This is a good team,but they are by no means unbeatable.

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