Surprise!
Before the season, I thought Rutgers would go 4-8. I felt that the talent was there to compete in the watered down Big 10, but I had very little confidence in Kyle Flood getting the job done after not only losing but getting blown out my a number of inferior teams in the AAC last year. A bowl berth would have been considered a major success coming into the 2014 season. Through six games they have already surpassed my projected win total and one win away from bowl eligibility. I'm happy to be wrong.
Rutgers was able to win a shoot out over Washington State in a game many thought would see their much maligned secondary exposed by the pass happy Cougs. They gave up a whole lot of yards, but clamped down in the redzone and let the offense do their thing. They were also able to win what I thought would be an extremely tough game at Navy.
But funny enough, the one game they actually lost, their Big 10 debut at home against Penn State, was one of the four games I had marked down as a win.
We Still Don't Know What to Expect From Gary Nova
We all knew that Gary Nova was going to be Rutgers quarterback all season, come hell or high water, but we had no idea what to expect out of him performance wise. His play in the first half of the year did not provide much clarity.
Nova is 5th nationally in passing efficiency, and he did throw for a career high 404 yards against a solid Michigan defense, but that five interception game against Penn State still happened. Hopefully that was just a blip on the radar and he continues playing like he has in the other five games the rest of the way.
Just How Good is the Offensive Line?
Rutgers offensive line was able to dominate against non power five opponents like Howard, Tulane and Navy, as well as a Washington State defense made soft by the air raid offense they had to practice against through out training camp, but they struggled mightily in their first two Big 10 games. They averaged 4.4 yards a carry and only allowed three sacks in their four out of conference games, but they are averaging just 2.89 yards a carry with five sacks allowed in the two conference games.
Michigan and Penn State are flawed teams, but they are both very good at defending the run, and they even rank first and second in the Big 10 in rushing defense (going by yards per attempt instead of total yards). Hopefully those two poor performances were just a result of facing two ery tough defense. The worst performances of the year are hopefully behind the Knights, but things obviously have to improve. I don't mean to call out or criticize players, but LG Kaleb Johnson came into the year as an NFL prospect and he has not played up to expectations. They will need better play from right tackle too, whether it's from Taj Alexander or JJ Denman.
I believe this unit will play better moving forward, and they pretty much have to for this team to be able to run the ball well with out Paul James.
Kemoko Turay: The Real Deal, But Still a Ways to Go
Turay barely played football in high school and sat out last year as a redshirt, but he supposedly was really impressive on the scout team and carried that level of impressive play over into spring and fall camp this year. Combining a rare blend of length, athleticism, and explosion off the ball, he has burst on to the scene seemingly out of nowhere as one of the best pure pass rushers in college football. He in actually leads the Big 10 in sacks with 5.5.
There is no questioning his success as a pass rusher, but in order for him to become a starter and reach (or come close to) his considerably high ceiling, he is going to need to play better against the run. He is still a bit undersized and learning the intricacies of the defense and run fits and stuff, but those things should come with time. Turay is a great player now, and he will only get scarier for opposing teams in the coming years.
The Secondary Has Improved
Rutgers secondary was historically bad a year ago, so it was almost impossible for them to not get better this year. This group is still pretty young, and they have not exactly been dominant, but they have been good enough to win ball games.
Obviously, they haven't played quarterbacks in the realm of Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles or Derek Carr (all three of whom are starting in the NFL now), but the numbers have improved by leaps and bounds. They allowed 31 passing touchdowns last year, and they have only given up 6 through half a season this year. They were 101st in pass efficiency defense and have made a modest improvement to 79th so far this year. There's still a lot of room for improvement, but they are trending in the right direction.
One noticeable change Joe Rossi has made this year is playing more man coverage. The Knights watched their zone coverages get picked apart last year, and Rossi has made the adjustment back to the coverages the program has had a ton of success with in the past. I also think that Nadir Barnwell has become a very good cover corner this year, and one of the few reliable tacklers this defense has in the secondary.He was a blue chip recruit, so he is only going to get better and hopefully anchor this unit for the next couple years.
Blue Chippers Playing Like Blue Chippers
Speaking of blue chip recruits, Rutgers 4 and 5 star guys are playing like 4 and 5 star guys, finally. After disappointing returns on previous blue chippers like Savon Higgins and Tom Savage, Darius Hamilton, Leonte Carroo, Chris Muller and Barnwell have all lived up to the hype. Hamilton and Carroo are pretty clearly Rutgers' best players on defense and offense respectively, and they both have legitimate cases to being named first team all Big 10 at the midway point of the season.
Muller and Barnwell both had some growing pains as freshman a season ago, but they have both made great strides this year. Muller has been much improved in pass protection, looking quicker and committing less penalties as a result, while still being a powerful run blocker. Barnwell has been Rutgers top cover man, and he has been strong against the run as well.
Stepping Up Oppsite Carroo?
When defenses prepare for Rutgers, they seem to have one thing in mind: stop Leonte Carroo at all costs. This has led to him getting double teamed most of the time, and that theoretically should open the field up for other receivers to do damage. But that was not the case in the early going.
Tightend Tyler Kroft, who was great last year, has not seen a lot of balls come his way, and Rutgers has had trouble finding a #2 receiver with Ruhan Peele yet to play a game and Andre Patton missing four games and being extremely limited in the other two. Andrew Turzilli has emerged as a dangerous deep threat who can "hit home runs" with the secondary rolling over to account for Carroo, and his recent big games will hopefully prevent defenses from focusing al their attention to one guy.
Turzilli's emergence and Patton and Peele hopefully becoming healthy and getting more looks will improve the Knights passing attack and hopefully alleviate the pressure on RU's go to receiver.
Linebckers as steady as ever
There were some articles written recently about Steve Longa's tackle total being down from last year, but his numbers really don't tell the story of how well he has played this year. Teams have tried to pass on Rutgers much more than they have run, in fact only 15 teams have seen fewer rushing attempts against them than Rutgers (and 4 of them have played less games), so naturally that is gong to cause his numbers to drop. Both he and Kevin Snyder have been outstanding in pass coverage and on blitzes this year, and Quinton Gause has been getting into opponent's backfield to make plays. The linebacking group is one of Rutgers' biggest strengths and they have been great so far this year.
At 5-1, Rutgers has gotten off to a great start to the season, and probably have already exceeded expectations (from the outside at least), but they still have a tough road ahead. The Scarlet Knights still have road trips at Ohio State, Nebraska, Michigan State and Maryland to make, as well as home contests against Wisconsin and Indiana. They only need one more win to achieve bowl eligibility for the ninth time in ten years, and I would guess they will be favored in two or three of their last six games. An 8-4 record while going 4-4 in conference play would be a pretty big success in Rutgers inagural Big 10 season. Let's hope they get there.
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