Friday, November 15, 2013

Rutgers and Red Zone Inefficency

 Back in May, I came across this article about the best and worst redzone offenses in college football over the 2010-2012 seasons, going by touchdown percentage. Rutgers was the third worst team in the country by this measure, and only Colorado State and Boston College were worse. Throughout those three seasons, the Scarlet Knights came away with a touchdown just 49% of the time they moved the ball inside their opponents twenty, and the redzone inefficiency was a significant part of the problem for an offense that has struggled mightily in recent years. The issue has reared its ugly head again for the Scarlet Knights in 2013 (they are 75th in TD% inside the redzone), especially in their most recent game against Temple..

Against the Owls two weeks ago, the reasons for not scoring touchdowns in the redzone were pretty cut and dry. They committed a few penalties, lost a fumble, and failed to convert a fourth down. But what is the deeper cause of this problem that dates back four years now? Let's take a look at the best redzone offense and see if there is a common thread:
Via Coachingsearch.com
With the exception of a few Air Raid teams like Texas Tech, East Carolina, and Louisiana Tech (who run a lot of screens, which are basically run plays, in the redzone), most of these teams have dominant running attacks. They go about it different ways, Wisconsin and Stanford do it with the behemoth lineman and power plays, Oregon does it with their spread zone, and Air Force does it with the triple option, but they can all rely on their ground attack to reach the endzone from short distances. That seems to be the ticket here, running the football.

Football has become an increasingly pass heavy game at all levels recently, but it's still difficult to throw the football in the redzone.The reason for this is all about spacing. When you have a condensed field, there is obviously less room vertically, so there is less ground the other team's defense has to defend. They are closer to one another in coverage, and have a better chance of making a play on the football. There also isn't enough room for your receivers to get the proper spacing necessary for the pass plays to work. Bill Walsh, who coached two hall of fame quarterbacks and is one of the most influential men in today's passing game, knew the limitations of passing in the redzone, and he famously relied on the power sweep in the redzone.

Even though Rutgers has branded itself as a run first team, they have not been a great running team since Ray Rice left. Their best players on offense have been receivers like Kenny Britt, Mohamed Sanu, Brandon Coleman and Leonte Carroo, so they have had to rely on the passing game a lot, and that leaves them short in the redzone. Those guys theoretically should dominate in the redzone with their size and physicality, and they all have scored their fair share of touchdowns, but passing the ball is still the lower percentage option. The running game is much more reliable time in and time out.

Now what can be done about this? Well, having Paul James back this week will help a lot. He had six touchdowns in the first four games of the season, and his vision could be a huge asset on the goal line. One of the other things I think they could do is give the ball to Savon Huggins more in the redzone. He has been a disappointment, but he is serviceable in short yardage situations. Another thing that could help is running some read option plays close to the goal line. Going back to the best offenses in the redzone, you see a lot of teams with running quarterbacks (Colin Klein at Kansas State, Denard Robinson at Michigan, Braxton Miller at Ohio State, etc.) who can utilize their quarterback's wheels in the redzone. Gary Nova isn't the fastest quarterback in the world, but he's not exactly slow either and Rutgers has dabbled with zone reads a little bit this year.

The team has simply left too many points out on the field over the past few years, and they will need to rectify this if they want to take the next step as an offense.

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