Thursday, November 29, 2012

Know Your Opponent: Louisville

Louisville visits Piscataway today, in what is the Scarlet Knights' biggest home game since the Thursday night thriller in November 2006 that saw Rutgers upend the #3 Cardinals 28-25 in dramatic, come back fashion. This 2012 Louisville team has a lot of similarities as the 2006 team. Teddy Bridgewater is the hot shot quarterback, just like Brian Brohm, Charlie Strong is their highly regarded head coach who will have some job offers come his way after the season, similar to Bobby Petrino, and the team is trying to overcome the loss of their starting running back, Senorise Perry, who went down with a season ending leg injury, similar to when the Cards lost Michael Bush. Where this team differs though, is in their youth. Their roster is full of juniors and sophomores, and that could be a problem for them this week. Not only do they have to deal with the typical road game things, they must deal with a number of outside distractions as well. The school just announced that it will join the ACC in two years yesterday, and they will also have to deal with the rumors that their head coach's name is being brought up for other jobs. Once they put the pads on and enter the field though, these distractions might go away. But hopefully they will continue to follow the 2006 team's path and lose a Thursday night game On the Banks.   

Louisville So Far
The Cardinals are coming off consecutive losses to Syracuse and Connecticut. Prior to that, they won their first nine games of the regular season, beating arch rival Kentucky, Missouri State, North Carolina, Florida International, Southern Miss, Pittsburgh, South Florida, Cincinnati, and Temple along the way to becoming the 9th ranked team in the country prior to those losses. 

Coaching
Louisville was the school that finally gave Charlie Strong a chance. After being passed over for numerous head coaching opportunities in the past, Strong had finally landed a coveted head job for the Cardinals. It was quite confusing as to why it took so long (some people think race played a factor), since he had such an impressive resume. Strong had coached under Lou Holtz at Notre Dame and South Carolina (where he invented the 3-3-5 defense), and he was also the defensive coordinator for two national championships teams at Florida under Urban Meyer. Since taking over at Louisville, he has made people regret not hiring him. Strong got the Cardinals' program back on track after some lean years, going 23-14 in his almost three full seasons, while also building strong recruiting ties for the school in Florida. He has also proved to be well organized and always well prepared, while still doing a good job coaching the defense. SEC schools may come after him when the year is over, but whether or not he will jump ship remains to be seen. I personally think he will stay at Louisville.

Offense 40th in PPG, 90th yards per carry, 16th in pass efficiency, 34th in yards per play
Teddy Bridgewater is the toal package at the quarterback position, and he has been by far the best offensive player in the Big East this year. He has nice size, a big time arm, impressive accuracy, and is athletic enough to be effective out of the pocket as both a passer and a runner. However, he comes into this game with a broken left wrist and sprained ankle, so it remains to be seen if his health will be an issue tonight. Upfront, Louisville is led by center Mario Benavides, who is very nimble and light on his feet and a very good all around blocker despite possessing average size. The rest of the offensive line is pretty much the polar opposite of him. They are very big and strong, but do not move very well at all. The Cardinals' o-line is capable of delivering punishing straight ahead blocks in the run game, but their lack of athleticism hampers them in pass protection, and Bridgewater has been his a lot this year, last week in particular. Top tail back Senorise Perry suffered a season ending injury earlier this month against Syracuse, and power back Jeremy Wright has taken over as the work horse since then. DeVante Parker is the big play threat at receiver, beating teams as a vertical threat, and three other receivers have at least 27 receptions.

The Cardinals run a mostly pro style offense with some spread concepts mixed in. They primarily try to run the ball right at you, down hill out of power formations and some pistol sets. Through the air, Louisville runs a ton of play action, getting Bridgewater out of the pocket on boot legs, and also taking numerous shots down field. At times, they have also spread some defenses out and beat them with the short passing game.They shift around a lot and send a lot of guys in motion, so you need to be prepared for that and know if or how moving guys affects your assignment. With Bridgewater's broken wrist, he will not be able to take snaps from under center, so they may run less play action as a result, and he could also have trouble handing the ball off on runs to the right.

Defense 44th in PPG, 75th in yards per carry, 48th in pass efficiency, 40th in yards per play
Louisville runs a 4-3 defense with a single high free safety, and they like to blitz. A lot. They play mostly zone coverages behind the blitzes, and will sometimes even drop guys from the line back into coverage. Their top defender is strong safety Hakeem Smith, who is a hard hitting safety that plays down in the box to stop the run and play underneath coverages. Their linebacking corp. is led by Preston Brown, who leads the team in tackles, and these guys bring a lot of pressure both up the middle and off the edge. They have a defensive line that is big up the middle and quick on the edges, and end Lorenzo Mauldin leads the team in sacks. Louisville is not very good at stopping the run, though. They are fooled by misdirection plays, and they get knocked off the ball too easily when teams run up the gut. If you run the ball well against them like Cincinnati did, you can frustrate them, and when they are frustrated, they give up big plays, especially on deep balls. When they play cover 3, the intermediate middle area of the field is often left open, and teams exploit that with skinny post patterns. The unit has been very inconsistent all year, and had near melt downs in the final minutes against both USF and North Carolina. This defense has posted solid overall numbers, but they appear to be a bit of a paper tiger. Syracuse really embarrassed this group a few weeks ago, and the book on how to beat them appears to be out.

Conclusion
Louisville has a great offense and a mediocre defense that is capable of playing great or playing poorly, led by their defensive minded head coach, who has done a great job preparing his team. The Cardinals are a young, hungry team who has a had a great year, but they know there's still a lot on the line for them.This is the most talented team Rutgers will face in the regular season, but the Cards' lack of senior leadership could be a problem this week, as they are on the road and have numerous outside distractions to deal with.

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