Game 10: Cincinnati

Rutgers is 8-1 (4-0) and alone atop the Big East standings, and they start a daunting 3 game stretch to end the season today, in their house of horrors, Nippert Stadium, against the Cincinnati Bearcats. Cincinnati is once again one of the best teams in the Big East, and they present a major road block to the Scarlet Knights, who have not played an opponent of this caliber yet this season. Rutgers hasn't played their best football of late, but they have been much better on the road than at home this year. They need to get off to a fast start today, as they may not be able to dominate in the second half against a very good team like they do against inferior teams.

Rutgers On Offense
Rutgers has been uber-conservative with their play calling this year, sitting back and hoping the other team just beats themselves, but they may not be able to get away with that this time. It looks like Jawan Jamison will play after injuring his ankle last week,  but I would expect him to carry a lighter load with Savon Huggins picking up the slack. Cincinnati has a small but quick front 4, so I would look for the Knights to run right at them, down hill, and maybe not run as much wide zone, which has been the staple of their offense. The offensive line needs to push people around, and they should probably cut block on the backside to prevent penetration. With Cincy's corners giving receivers tons of cushion, I would expect a lot of quick screens to the outside. Hopefully they will attack the middle with some slants and crossing patterns too, as the Bearcat linebackers are not great in coverage and leave the middle vacated quite often when they blitz. These runs and shot passes will hopefully draw the defense up, allowing Nova to attack them deep. Cincy blitzes a lot too, so Nova and the line need to figure that out and pick them up.

Rutgers On Defense
Rutgers made a lot of position changes before last season to get more speed on the field in order to stop offenses just like Cincinnati's. It will be strength vs strength when the Bearcats run the ball to the outside, which they do so often. Khaseem Greene should have plenty of opportunities to make plays in space, and the corners need to provide run support, like they usually do. If they run right at Logan Ryan, I like Rutgers' chances. The defensive line mush get pressure on Brandon Key, and make him uncomfortable when he drops back and throws deep. Cincy throws a lot of deep balls, and the defensive backs must use their ball skills to knock passes down and hopefully get some interceptions. Cincinnati is at their best when the run the ball to the left, so Rutgers should some how try to get them to run right. The right side of Cincy's line can get pushed around. Tight end Travis Kelce is a very good receiver, and the linebackers need to keep him in check.

Injuries
It looks like Kyle Federico will miss another game. It's possible Jamison doesn't play, but Kyle Flood says there's a 75% chance he will be a go. Right guard Andre Civil is out, and Taj Alexander, who started against USF and has been getting a solid amount of playing time, will get the starting nod in his place.

Prediction- Rutgers 27 Cincinnati 24
I think Rutgers defense will be able to hold the Bearcats' ground attack in check and force Kay beat them with his arm, and I don't think he can do that. I'm hoping the offense gets out of their slide and unleash Nova, but I think they will be able to run the ball like they did early in the year. The Knights will of course probably make a big play on special teams too,