What's the Deal With South Florida?
USF is 2-0 after beating a very good Nevada team on the road in dramatic, come back fashion last Saturday. The Bulls run a spread attack offensively, and they are very balanced between the run and the pass. Their best offensive player so far has been Sophomore wide out Andre Davis, who caught 12 passes for 191 yards, including the game winner with 38 seconds left, in Reno last week. They lost their number 2 receiver , Sterling Griffin (who is a good possession receiver), to a season ending injury, so Davis could be double teamed if necessary. They don't have a whole lot of proven pass catchers outside of Davis going tonight.
B.J. Daniels is still the starting QB at USF, and he has continued his yearly tradition of piling up huge numbers against non BCS opponents. It remains to be seen if he has turned the corner against superior competition, and I honestly don't know what to expect from him tonight. Rutgers has given him fits in the past, but I could see him breaking out with a huge game, being a non factor or throwing key interceptions. Whether he is a threat as a passer tonight or not, Daniels is a dangerous runner who can hurt you with his legs. Rutgers has put a "spy" on him the past few years to try negate his running ability, and I would expect them to do the same tonight.
The Bulls return three starters from an offensive line that finished 15th nationally in Football Outsider's metric to measure run blocking and 14th in their metric to measure pass protection. They have been solid so far this year, averaging 4.45 yards per carry as a team, while also only allowing 3 sacks total in their two games. Demetrius Murray is their lead tailback, and he has ran for 115 yards (3.97 ypc) through 2 games. He is their power guy and he pairs up with the explosive Lindsay Lamar, who has had 8 carries for 85 yards this season.
USF boasts a very strong defense that returns eight starters. They have a very strong line-backing corp, featuring DeDe Lattimore, Mike Lanaris, and Sam Barrington, making them some what some what difficult to run against, though Nevada ran the ball effectively against them last week. Their defensive line is very formidable, as they have a number of speedsters who can get after the passer. Their secondary was a cause for concern last year and especially during spring practice this year, so they can be exploited by a competent passing attack (which Rutgers does not appear to have at the moment).
Rutgers on Offense
The run game has been strong so far, but they will face their first big test tonight. Jawan Jamison will need to shoulder the load with Savon Huggins out, and carry the ball 25-30 times. Taj Alexander makes his first collegiate start for the injured Andre Civil, and hopefully he is able to gel in well with a line that has succed in large part because of strong continuity.
Gary Nova and the receivers need to step up and take advantage of USF's questionable secondary, but that's easier said than done. They haven't been very successful so far, running a ton of screens and other short passes, but this play calling may have been a strategic effort to fool USF in to changing what they do on defense to give Rutgers a slight upper hand. As Bill C. at SB Nation said in his USF preview "(Their DBs) allowed severe cushions to opposing receivers and it hurt them at times." My theory is that Dave Brock wanted to put all these screens on tape to bait them into playing tighter coverage, to allow RU's deep threats Brandon Coleman and Mark Harrison to beat these DBs off the line and burn them deep. Nova has struggled mightily with his accuracy, but he has thrown a pretty good deep ball in the limited opportunities he has had to make those throws.
Rutgers on Defense
Scott Vallone, Steve Beauharnais, and co. are going to need to continue stuffing the run up the middle to make the Bulls one dimensional. Their defensive ends need to get a strong pass rush and contain Daniels in the pocket. They can not allow him to beat them with his feet. Look for Khaseem Green or Jamal Merrell to spy him as well. Logan Ryan is going to have to show that he is THE top shut down corner in the Big East against Davis, and if he can not handle it, Duron Harmon will have to help him over the top. Basiclly, they just need to keep doing what they've been doing.
Injury Report/ Suspension
Michael Larrow will serve the 3rd game of his four game susspension.
Andre Civil will miss the game with a lower body injury, and as I said before, Taj Alexander will take his place. Civil was doing a good job, especially pulling, but Alexander played well too in his limited time against Howard.
Reserve tailbacks Savon Huggins and Paul James are out with lower body injuries. It will be interesting to see what they do in short yardage/goal line situations with out Huggins. My guess is Michel Burton gets some carries.
Defensive end will be thin once again with Marcus Thompson out in addition to Larrow. Defensive Tackle Al Page is out as well.
Betim Bujari will start despite leaving last Saturday's game with a leg injury, and Paul Carrezola will make his first start of the year after missing the first two games. Jeremy Deering will return from a spraind ankle as well.
Prediction
Rutgers 12 South Florida 10
I think this will be a defensive struggles and the Knights will make a huge play on special teams to pull out a close win.
No comments:
Post a Comment